Suvarnabhumi international airport closed due to protesters

[Mark]

The PAD has taken over the Suvarnabhumi international airport with protesters spread around it, and is also blocking the main expressway entrance, refusing to back down until Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat resigns.

All incoming flights have now been cancelled, too. Outgoing flights ended when the blockage started Tuesday evening, while incoming flights already in the air were permitted to arrive.

Given the blows to Thailand's tourism and economy due to this, the pressure has mounted on the Prime Minister, the police and the army.

It is more difficult for the PAD's opponents to bomb them inside the airport, so it's possible that more PAD supporters may show up, and they may be more difficult to disperse.

Inside the airport, it seems that many of them may have made themselves not easy to recognize by ordinary clothing and mixing in with stranded passengers. "The PAD members are now scattered around. I don't know who's who, or who's PAD and who's not," a senior AOT official told The Nation at around 10.30 pm on the first night.

The government house, previously occupied for months, and commonly bombed, is now nearly emptied. It seems that the airport is the best refuge from grenade launchers.

The endgame has reached a crucial point, with pressure now mounting like never before on the current people in power for a quick solution, so it will be most interesting to see what happens over the upcoming days.

The PAD has clearly employed an endgame strategy in occupying the airport, to indeed force a final resolution of the conflict this week, either win-lose or lose-lose.

As long as the PAD doesn't blow its image too much elsewhere, or allow itself to be sucker punched, it may well succeed in its objective to get one man to resign, exiled PM Thaksin's brother in law, Somchai Wongsawat, who became Prime Minister in September as covered elsewhere on this website. However, taking over the airport itself may result in the PAD's self-destruction, as it is simply too damaging to so many innocent people and entities.

Photo gallery on The Nation's website:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/spec...News&cateid=13

Photo gallery of other PAD demonstrations:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/spec...News&cateid=13

[Mark]

The Prime Minister has refused to resign, saying he will continue to serve because the people elected him. (The Prime Minister is not directly elected by the people, but is put forth by their party, and he was the most controversial choice possible, being the rubber stamp proxy brother-in-law of the corrupt Prime Minister who caused the coup of 2006 as well as the current crisis by his string pulled orders...)

The PAD is further digging in its heels in response.

Army Commander in Chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda continues to rule out a coup, and as chairman of the so-called situation monitoring panel, a committee of public and private sector advisors, Gen. Anupong has been in charge of trying to negotiate between the PAD and the government.

Gen. Anupong came out of his panel suggesting that the Prime Minister dissolve Parliament and thereby return the decision back to the people. The PAD are only calling for the Prime Minister's resignation, and agree to disperse only upon that agreement, but many think the PAD would actually disperse if Parliament was dissolved and a new election called.

However, the Prime Minister is refusing to resign. He is saying the same lines as his exiled master, Thaksin.

The position of the Prime Minister is that the PAD is using illegal means and is causing serious damages, and should be evicted from the airport and prosecuted, and that there's nothing for the government to negotiate.

The army and police have been defiant (civil disobedience) by refusing to forcefully evicting the PAD from the airport or other places as ordered over the past few months, just as they were when the PAD took over Government House and engaged in other blockages of government meetings. Instead, the army and police requested negotiations between the two parties.

The Prime Minister and his government are apparently hoping that the PAD's continued occupancy of the airport will turn both local and international public opinion against them. They are almost surely right about that.

However, the PAD is not a political party and has little to lose themselves. The PAD is like a sacrificial lamb in Thai politics.

The opposition political parties are not significantly linked to the PAD. While they have some important arguments in common, they are far apart on other issues.

So the question is how much public opinion will also turn against the government for extending the crisis by refusing to negotiate with the PAD, an extension of their very self-serving ways over the past year without caring about the impact to the country (such as putting Thaksin's brother-in-law in as Prime Minister, and plans to give amnesty to convicted corrupt politicians of their former party)?

It has always been an issue of just how important one person is to their party, ex-PM Thaksin, and now Thaksin's brother-in-law, PM Somchai, instead of the best interests of the country. This question has been repeated so many times in Thai society this year.

It looks like the government may win this battle, but lose the war.

Many pundits give the PAD about 2 days to achieve their objective of getting the PM to resign (or else parliament dissolved), before public sentiment turns against the PAD too strongly for them to continue occupation of the airport.

However, public sentiment against the PAD does not mean a shift of public sentiment in favor of the government.

Some civil servant disobedience to the government is already happening, mainly in the army and police, so what will the effects be if there is a continuation of that while the PAD becomes intolerable, especially if the army and police don't evict the PAD from the airport?

What may force things further is that the pro-government "red army" is mobilizing more supporters from the provinces to come into Bangkok to wage a street fight with the PAD.

Last night, a group from this red army sought out the home of the PAD leader in a province, going to his neighborhood and stirring up trouble. In the skirmish they shot and killed the father of a PAD supporter (previously misreported as the leader's father) and did other vandalism.

If that is the sort coming to Bangkok in large numbers, and if they show up in enough numbers within a day or two, then the equation and public sentiments will have changed considerably, out of favor of both sides.

If there were a coup, then the red army would then switch their fight from against the PAD to against the coup participants.

The best way out is a new election to return the mandate to the people. Unfortunately, with the organization of armies, and the divisions in Thai society, it could become an election with an unusual amount of violence. On the other hand, the longer this goes on, the bigger and better organized the armies become.

The only way that a new election would happen is if the Prime Minister dissolves parliament, or else there is a short coup. For the time being, both have been ruled out.

Right now, it looks like the PAD may become a sacrificial lamb at the airport, and the situation that may unfold is one with the government going forward, PAD groups continuing to block some meetings, but with red army guerillas clashing with PAD guerillas to discourage this.

However, if the PAD doesn't give up the airport in a few days, or if red army recruits turn up in huge numbers, there could be a dramatic change of events.

Unless, of course, the Prime Minister changes his mind. Or the military does launch a coup.

[Mark]

On Thursday night, Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat went on TV at 9pm and declared the two airports official state of emergency zones, ordering the Navy and Air Force to clear the two Bangkok airports, with the assistance of police.

This is odd, since neither the Navy nor the Air Force have the training, equipment or resources for such an operation, as they made clear.

The Army normally does tasks like this, and was most conspicuously left out of the scheme altogether.

Meanwhile, rumors of a coup by the Army have started to spread. One such rumor is that the Prime Minister was given until midnight (3 hours after his TV announcement) to dissolve Parliament and call for a new election, or else there would be a coup. However, an official Army spokesman told the AP that there would be no coup.

[Mark]

There are some reports of a few tanks and armored personnel carriers moving around Bangkok, including two TV stations. TV stations ran text saying the army was mobilizing vehicles and personnal "as part of a study course for military students".

The Bangkok Post quoted an army source saying that the army may stage a coup under two conditions: either use of force against the protesters or else removal of army Gen. Anupong from his post. The Bangkok Post also reported that an order to remove Gen. Anupong had been prepared for the Prime Minister to sign.

Later, the government responded to reports on army troop movements by reiterating that it did not plan to remove Gen. Anupong. A government spokesperson in an unexpected press conference pleaded for soldiers to stay in their barracks.

The Bangkok Post reported that 22 army batallions had been put on standby in Bangkok, Prachin Buri, Saraburi, Kanchanaburi and Lop Buri. Other reports noted busloads of army soldiers already on the highway on the way into the city.

An army spokesperson maintained the line that there would not be a coup because a coup is not a solution to the political problem and the army would need to deal with the subsequent protests against an alleged dictatorship.

With "red army" people also descending onto Bangkok, however, people are now saying that a coup is not on the top of their list of worries. Widespread violence is. And the army and police would have their work cut out for themselves to deal with that, if it unfolded.

The army's movements may just be upping the pressure for the brother-in-law Prime Minister to resign and/or call for a new election, rather than maintain its uncompromising and strict position.

However, given the current government's very poor leadership in dealing with the current political situation, the intelligencia may have concluded that the current government is too selfishly unwilling to work out a solution for the nation and unlikely to ever work out a solution (if the past is an indication of the future), especially given the government's continued intransigence in such an extreme situation, so that the current situation would drag out well into the future, therefore forcefully removing the current leadership may be the least of the evils.

If this happens, it opens up the question of what's next, in terms of establishing a new government and leadership.

First would come martial law, to disband both red and yellow armies.

However, the key to all this would be better alternative leadership. Not just controlling the bad guys on all sides, but a leader with the moral authority, track record, charisma, and creative solutions mindset to lead Thai society out of this divisive mess.

If a coup happens. Big if. Things could change if the PM resigns, and/or a new election is called. Or if the PAD is forcefully swept out of the airport or leaves on its own accord. Which will it be?

[Mark]

I've heard numerous reports from people I know about individual Thais and especially groups of friends and associates being offered money by both the PAD (yellow anti-govt) and the red army (pro-govt) to go participate in the conflict, and some have even been offered alcohol as well. Most of these are anecdotal verbal reports, some of which may be exaggerated rumors, and we don't know to what extent this kind of thing is happening, or even what games may be played in all this. Many have hit the news.

In any case, at the same time, a new slang word/meaning has been created to describe paid "grassroots" protesters: "astroturf".

It also raises the question of what percentage of them would go violent as part of a mob mentality if instructed to do so or caught up in an instigated event. Including under the influence of substance abuse.

[Mark]

According to The Nation, in a top level police meeting, the police have been instructed to clear out the airports.

"The Metropolitan Police chief was assigned to be in charge of operations to retake the Don Mueang Airport while the Provincial Police Bureau 1 in charge of Suvarnabhumi Airport operations.

"Attending the meeting were deputy and metropolitan police chiefs, commanders of Metropolitan Police Divisions 1 to 9, deputy commanders of the divisions, commanders of 88 police station in Bangkok, 191 Taskforce commander and traffic police commander."

They were also instructed to make announcements to the protesters, distribute flyers including air dropping if necessary, and go door to door to urge known relatives to request their relatives leave the airports and Government House.

[Mark]

The government has said it will forcefully evacuate the protesters from the airports, apparently using the police, after evacuating approximately 3000 stranded foreigners.

The government has also threatened to involve Thaksin if the military stages a coup.

Government Spokesman Natthawut Saikua said today, "If a coup is staged, Thaksin will fight against it along side with Thais. He can make phone calls to us 24 hours a day." (The Nation)

[Mark]

In a shocking move, the government removed the national police chief from his post, moving him to an inactive post, and replaced him with the police inspector-general.

Police Commissioner-General Pol Gen Phatcharawat Wongsuwan is now out, Police Inspector-General Pol Gen Prateep Tanprasert is now caretaker police commissioner-general.

This has fueled speculation that the head of the army may be the next for the government to replace.

[Mark]

It has been a long day... so before I go to sleep, I will give a final assessment. Perhaps some of this belongs in "commentary" rather than "news", but here goes:

Most people in political circles seem to agree in their prediction that the People Power Party (PPP) will be dissolved by the Constitution Court on Tuesday, December 2nd, due to violating the law, and top executives will be banned from politics. This is an old case that just happens to be coming to a conclusion now. Two other coalition parties are in the same situation, so all three might be dissolved.

This may open up the possibility of something called "the judicial coup" by many people.

It could become a coup of sorts because the constitution fails to say who will govern in the interim period before the members of the disbanded party join a new party. (Some will be banned from politics, but most can just switch parties.) Members of the disbanded main coalition party(s) are given a period of 60 days. It appears possible in the view of many that the courts could pave the way for some kind of caretaker government to step in which would then push aside Thaksin's followers. However, many experts question whether this will happen.

The PPP leaders have already created a new party for its members to go to, called the Puea Thai Party. That new party was initially registered (created) by Thaksin's sister who is the wife of the current Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, and the party is headed by ... yes, you guessed it, another Thaksin relative (cousin), General Chaiyasith Shinawatra.

Despite many rumors of a coup, with the Prime Minister running around in undisclosed locations so he can't get corraled anywhere for a coup or for other security reasons, way up in exiled PM Thaksin's home turf of Chiang Mai, with his top ministers and makeshift government a bit over 500 km removed from the capitol, ... and an army with reported troop movements and some tanks in Bangkok ... I still question whether an overnight coup will happen after all.

If the military topples the government, then the PAD will leave all its sites (two airports, government house), but it will not solve the conflicts in society. Indeed, the other side will then become the protesters. The coup makers must have a plan to deal with the rifts in society created by the Thaksin era. This will require a kind of leadership much better than what emerged after the 2006 coup.

Other notable items:

I've heard that the old U-Tapao airport, approximately 2-3 hours outside Bangkok, is being considered for a major ramp-up for running international flights. It's an old Vietnam era airport previously used for B-52 bombers and cargo planes. For at least 10 years, it has handled chartered flights such as from Russia. There's only small infrastructure to handle passengers and cargo.

The King is scheduled to deliver his annual birthday address on Friday, December 5th, a national holiday as always. This date is looked forward to by practically everyone. Hopefully, this whole mess will be resolved before or around then.

[Mark]

It's mid-Saturday and the stalemate hasn't changed much.

PAD guards are holding a policeman hostage, a senior sergeant major. He said that there had been a clash with PAD guards at an outer location -- a police checkpoint way out on Kingkaew Road. The police retreated but he went back to get his car. He found his car vandalized by the protesters and they seized him and took him hostage, taking him back to the airport. News reporters were not allowed to follow him for photos or interview and the crowd booed when they tried.

It looks like the PAD has degenerated further into a mob of dubious methods, and the school of thought that we cannot reward this kind of behavior is getting stronger, which is also the government's position.

Not that we should reward the behavior of the government, either, past or present. Further, on Sunday at 4pm, the political operatives of the party in power are amassing a red shirts rally to show their forces, fortunately far from the airport but not very far from Government House. The PAD's TV station continues to be bombed by grenade launchers, and the government and its allies are threatening to pull out the stops on its mobs of the poor from the particular provinces of its own power base.

In my opinion, if the PAD were smart, they would voluntarily disperse from the airport and go home, having made their point already about the power they can wield, with an apology to all affected due to the airport closure, and quit while maybe they're still ahead and viable, still able to rise again in the future if necessary.

The government won't fall this way, a coup seems quite unlikely all considered, and it looks like the political party they oppose will be dissolved on Tuesday anyway, so what's the point in continuing further at this time? They could try to negotiate simply a safe passage home, a compromise, the gentle Thai way.

The government has not blinked to either the military or the PAD, and indeed quite the contrary.

However, the PAD are rapidly losing support from almost everyone, daily, for their occupation of the airport, and they are probably generating animosities with the police for taking a hostage, who are the only party threatening to take them out of the airport. If this ends in bloodshed then the PAD will likely harbor most of the blame.

Who knows how much they have already damaged the airport? Government House is reportedly in need of major renovation, and many valuable things are simply missing from offices.

This is sometimes what happens in protests. It starts with a noble cause, but it attracts extreme characters and some egomaniacs, and if there is insufficiently strong leadership by level headed and well composed people at the top, then it can quickly degenerate into violence as well as serious damages to the innocent. (Many months ago, I discussed the questionable motivations and background of PAD co-leader and spearhead Sonthi Limthongkul, who gained fame by his Thaksin attacks on manager.co.th)

One of the previously most respectable leaders of the PAD, former reformist Gen. Chamlong Srimuang, who was a mayor of Bangkok in the 1990s, followed the principles of a Buddhist sect (and is strictly celibate, a vegetarian, and unmaterialistic), but who led the surprise airport seizure, has offered to negotiate with Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat most anywhere, but not in Chiang Mai.

Notably, it was Chamlong who headed the first political party that Thaksin joined (Palang Dharma, or "righteousness", Party), and indeed mentored and brought Thaksin up to a leadership role, including Foreign Minister, eventually picking Thaksin to succeed him as party leader. That was back in 1994-95.

It was also Chamlong who led the surprise takeover of the airport. He woke up everyone at Government House at 6am that morning and announced they were going to the airport at 7am, and told them to bring food and water with them.

Chamlong has assured everyone that the crisis would be over by December 5 (next Friday, the King's birthday), but that seems too far away.

Hopefully, Chamlong and Somchai will negotiate a compromise of some kind among all parties. In any case, this could put the ball back onto the side of the government leadership in the eyes of public opinion.

Both sides' positions have been too strict, and it appeared they had dug into their final positions. Thais are normally a compromising society (that is, until the Thaksin regimes came to power and rammed its power down others' throats, and now the PAD did the same at the airport), so any breakthrough will require a sincere will to compromise terms.

Direct face-to-face dialogue, both men no longer surrounded by their True Believer supporters, could be a start that goes a long way. This would be good leadership, rather than "leaders" actually being "followers" of the extremist powers in society.

[This is continued on page 2. http://www.ssbkk.com/vb/showthread.php?t=1969&page=2 ]